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Episode 1346: Baseball and Eight American Pies
Date March 12, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about the fallout from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s oblique injury and the signings of Adam Jones and Martin Maldonado as referenda on free agency, then answer listener emails about whether the Indians and Astros could have significantly upped their playoff odds by making more moves (and fan bases that should be aggrieved about their teams’ winter inactivity), Craig Kimbrel’s in-season negotiating leverage, whether wearing or not wearing a uniform number is a more fitting tribute, the value of scouting strengths versus scouting weaknesses, and the effects of robo umps on offense, entertainment value, and chasing pitches outside the strike zone, plus a Stat Blast about manager height. Topics * How much does offseason spending effect PECOTA odds * How would Bryce Harper effect the Indians season * Is Craig Kimbrel’s leverage improve in season * Is wearing or not wearing a number a better tribute * Is it better to know which, is player is on the incline or decline * Robot umpires effect on chase rate Intro * The Glands, "Pie" Outro * Neuseiland, "Robots of Me" Banter * Vladimir Guerrero Jr oblique injury * Adam Jones signs with Diamondbacks * American Pie movies * Martin Maldonado Email Questions * Jamie: According to PECOTA, Cleveland currently has a 90% chance of making the ALDS, and a 14.6% chance of winning the World Series. For Houston, the numbers are 86% and 14.1%. If either of those teams had chosen to add $100 million extra payroll in the off-season, how much higher do you think these numbers would be? What about for $50M, or $200M? * Damian: Considering the high prospect value of trading for elite RP in-season, and comparing it to the success that Roger Clemens had with his in season contracts at the end of his career, does it seem like Kimbrel could make an case that his negotiating leverage could be even higher in-season than during the off-season? I see an odd leverage curve that may be at it’s lowest right about now, but will continue to rise until approaching the point in the season where he couldn’t be added to a playoff roster, then steadily declining. * Andrew in Vancouver: Long time listener, first time emailer. It was announced recently that new Blue Jay Freddie Galvis would be changing his uniform number in tribute to Jose Bautista once he discovered that the number he had been assigned (19) was once Bautista's. Meanwhile, new Tiger Josh Harrison recently decided to wear number 1 in tribute to Lou Whitaker. Which do you think is a more fitting tribute, to deliberately wear someone's number or to deliberately not wear it? * Allen: Inspired by your conversation about the Ken Griffey Jr. scouting report and Ben’s point about how it would’ve been more useful to know that Junior was about to decline, I wondered if positive or negative scouting ability is more valuable at the major league level. Put a different way, is it better to have scouts who could accurately tell you prospects that would develop into successful players or scouts who could accurately tell you which players to avoid for whatever reason (injury risk, ballpark effects, mechanics, etc). I assume in an ideal world, you’d want both qualities in a scout or an even split of those talents among scouts. But if you had to pick one skill set, which would you prefer? * Tim: Frequent listener, first time e-mailer (of the podcast, I used e-mailed before). With the implementation of robo umps to independent baseball leagues, I was wondering if you think a robotic strike zone would affect the chase rate or players with high chase rates like Javier Baez? If the strike zone was effected human error, would Baez feel less inclined to swing? Or is that just his play style? Also, what would happen to Javier’s chase rate if the strike zone was enlarged? Would his chase rate decrease, or would it remain the same because now he is chasing pitches even farther out of the classic strike zone? Thanks. StatBlast * Managers are largely short. * All the managers that were hired this offseason were shorter than the managers they replaced, except Rocco Baldelli. * 6 foot 4 is the tallest manager in baseball. * The average manager is just over 6 foot tall, 1 inch shorter than the average players height. Notes * “You can imagine a Cars 1 quote coming from a guy with a couple good years left” - Sam * Sam looked at players who stated what they were looking for and found that players got 83 percent of dollars and years. * Last year Cleveland went 49-27 against the AL Central, they went 42-44 against rest of teams. * Ben think Craig Kimbrel one year deal could be 20 million today, and if he signs for a half year its 17 million. * In 25 years Ben thinks 50% of managers will have played professional baseball, and 25 % will be former pitchers. * Sam thinks 95% of managers in 25 years will have played professional baseball, and 85 % will be former pitchers. Links https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1346-baseball-and-eight-american-pies/ Link to Dan Szymborski on Jones and Maldonado Link to Sam on players seeking contracts Link to BP playoff odds Link to Sam’s article on manager height Link to article on the compassionate umpire Link to article on the Bayesian umpire Link to Baltimore/DC-area EW meetup Link to preorder The MVP Machine Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes